Revenue Forecast Model

Mathematical projection based on current fee structure. Adjust inputs to stress-test.

Starting Firms (Y1)

YoY Growth Rate

Avg Deal Value (S$)

Deals per Firm / Year

Assumptions: 50% PSG subsidy on setup fee | 60% Roof-sourced leads (commission applies), 40% warm referrals (no commission) | Escrow fee 2% on all GMV | Trade finance ramps from Y2 (40% of GMV at 2% fee) | Blended commission decays 2.0% → 1.0% as firms hit loyalty tiers

	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Active Firms	10	20	40	80	160
Total Deals	100	200	400	800	1600
GMV	$8.0M	$16.0M	$32.0M	$64.0M	$128.0M
Revenue Breakdown
Setup Fees (one-time)	$75k	$75k	$150k	$300k	$600k
SaaS ($299/mo)	$36k	$72k	$144k	$287k	$574k
Commission (2.0% → 1.0%)	$96k	$168k	$288k	$480k	$768k
Escrow Fee (2%)	$160k	$320k	$640k	$1.3M	$2.6M
Trade Finance (2%)	$0	$43k	$171k	$512k	$1.0M
Total Revenue	$367k	$677k	$1.4M	$2.9M	$5.5M

Revenue Mix by Year

$367k

$677k

$1.4M

$2.9M

$5.5M

Setup

SaaS

Commission

Escrow

Trade Finance

Long-Term Risk Analysis

Without Escrow + Trade Finance

Y5 Revenue: $1.9M
Commission decays as firms hit 0.5% tier
SaaS caps at 160 firms x $299 = $574k/yr
Verdict: Plateaus. Need 500+ firms to hit $2M.

With Escrow + Trade Finance

Y5 Revenue: $5.5M
Escrow scales with GMV (no decay): $2.6M
Trade finance grows exponentially: $1.0M
Verdict: Scales. Fintech layers prevent plateau.

Crossover Point: In Year 1, Escrow + Trade Finance revenue ($160k) overtakes Commission revenue ($96k). This is when Roof transitions from a SaaS company to a fintech.